Pair vs Overcards: Who Is the Favorite, and by How Much
A pair vs overcards is close to a coin flip before the flop: 99 against AK offsuit has 55.7% equity, 22 has 53%. Against AK suited the margin shrinks, and 22 even becomes a slight underdog at 49.9%. Once the flop misses AK, the pair takes over: 74.4% on a low flop, 86.4% after a blank turn.
A pair facing a 3‑bet
You open 99 under the gun to 2.5 big blinds at 100 big blinds deep; everyone folds to the big blind, who 3‑bets to 11. Fold, call, 4‑bet or jam?
See the answer
Against AK. 55.7% against offsuit, 52.4% against suited: a race.
The decision. A 3‑bet range also holds overpairs that crush 99. The expected answer is still to call: in position and 100 big blinds deep, 99 is still in a race against the overcards and can flop a set to win a big pot against the overpairs, without bloating the pot with a 4‑bet.
Pairs from 22 to KK against AK, before the flop
| Pair | vs AK offsuit | vs AK suited |
|---|---|---|
| 2♣2♦ | 53% | 49.9% |
| 4♣4♦ | 54.4% | 51.2% |
| 7♣7♦ | 55.4% | 52.1% |
| 9♠9♣ | 55.7% | 52.4% |
| T♣T♦ | 57.3% | 53.9% |
| J♣J♦ | 57.3% | 53.9% |
| Q♣Q♦ | 57.2% | 53.8% |
| K♣K♦, AK's king nearly dead | 70% | 65.9% |
When the flop misses the overcards
| Board | 9♠9♣ vs A♥K♦ |
|---|---|
| preflop | 55.7% |
| flop 7♦ 4♣ 2♠ | 74.4% |
| turn T♥ | 86.4% |
| flop Q♦ J♣ 4♠, AK adds a gutshot | 60.4% |
| flop A♦ 7♣ 2♠, AK pairs | 8.8% |
What the tables show
| Effect | Example | Equity |
|---|---|---|
| suited overcards gain about three points | 9♠9♣ vs AKo / vs AKs | 55.7% → 52.4% |
| the smallest pair loses its edge | 2♣2♦ vs A♠K♠ | 49.9% |
| a bigger pair barely helps | J♣J♦ and Q♣Q♦ vs AKo | 57.3% and 57.2% |
| a pair that matches an overcard | K♣K♦ vs AKo | 70% |
| a flop that misses AK | 9♠9♣ on 7♦ 4♣ 2♠ | 74.4% |
Keep going
- Exact equities for any matchup: the best poker equity calculators 2026.
- Calling a 3‑bet to flop a set: implied odds.
- Another classic matchup: flush draw vs top pair.
- Preflop decisions to practice: the preflop quiz.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- When the kicker decides: dominated hands.
- A set against the draws: set vs flush draw.
- Every key probability on one page: the poker odds chart.
- The strongest starting hand, before and after the flop: how to play pocket aces.
- A strong pair that faces many overcards: how to play pocket tens.
- Pairs from sixes to nines: how to play middle pairs.
- The strongest unpaired hand: how to play ace-king.
- The hand ace-king dominates: how to play ace-queen.
- Two broadway cards against a pair of tens: suited broadway hands.
- An ace and a small kicker against a pair: weak aces.
- What an all‑in coinflip is worth in a tournament: ICM poker.
- A coinflip that becomes a fold near the money: bubble strategy.
- A coinflip at a final table: final table strategy.
- A small pair moving all‑in: calling all‑ins in tournaments.
- What equity is, with exact classic matchups: poker equity.
- A pocket pair against a bigger pair: pocket pair vs pocket pair.
Sources
- Every equity is computed by exact enumeration of all remaining boards (1,712,304 before the flop) with the app's equity module, checked on October 10, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.