Set vs Flush Draw: How Big a Favorite the Set Really Is
A set vs flush draw on the flop is a clear favorite: on J♠ 8♠ 7♥, a set of sevens holds 74% against the nut flush draw and still 60.2% against a 15-out combo draw. After a blank turn, the set climbs to 70.5% to 84.1%. Even when the draw comes in, the set sometimes still wins, because it can fill up to a full house.
A set facing a c‑bet on a wet board
You defend the big blind with 7♦7♣. The flop comes J♠ 8♠ 7♥ and the button bets 33% of the pot. Call, check‑raise to 4 times the bet, or jam?
See the answer
Your equity. Against the button's flush draws, your set holds between 60.2% and 74% on the flop.
The decision. The expected answer is the check‑raise: on a board this wet, many turn cards help a draw, and raising makes those draws pay now, while they are behind, instead of seeing the turn cheaply.
The set against each draw: flop and turn
Board J♠ 8♠ 7♥, set 7♦7♣; the turn is the 2♦. Equity of the set.
| Opponent's hand | Outs | Flop | Turn |
|---|---|---|---|
| A♠K♠, nut flush draw | 9 | 74% | 84.1% |
| K♠Q♠, flush draw | 9 | 73.5% | 84.1% |
| Q♠T♠, flush draw + gutshot | 12 | 65.3% | 77.3% |
| 6♠5♠, flush + open-ended | 15 | 60.2% | 70.5% |
| J♣T♠, top pair + gutshot | 4 | 81.6% | 90.9% |
What the table shows
| Effect | Example | Set's equity |
|---|---|---|
| more outs, less equity for the set | 9, then 12, then 15 outs | 74% → 65.3% → 60.2% |
| nut draw or not: almost the same | A♠K♠ vs K♠Q♠ | 74% and 73.5% |
| one card left favors the set | A♠K♠, flop then turn | 74% → 84.1% |
| the set's own outs for the river (after the 2♦ turn, against a flush draw) | full house or quads | 10 of 44 cards |
Keep going
- Count the draw's outs: poker outs.
- The same draws against top pair: flush draw vs top pair.
- When the price justifies a draw: pot odds.
- Calling to flop a set: implied odds.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- The straight version: open-ended straight draw vs overpair.
- Flush and straight draw together: the combo draw.
- Raising the bettor instead of calling: the check‑raise.
- What the free card given to the draw costs: slowplay.
- Losing as the favorite, without a mistake: poker tilt.
- The nut draw against other hands: how to play the nut flush draw.
- Which two pair wins, and how a paired board counterfeits it: two pair in poker.
- Set or trips, and why the same three of a kind plays differently: set vs trips.
Sources
- Every equity is computed by exact enumeration of all remaining boards with the app's equity module, and every outs count is recounted from the cards, checked on October 10, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.