Bubble Strategy: Why 50% Is No Longer Enough to Call an All‑In
Bubble strategy changes the price of an all‑in. Just before the paid places, losing your stack costs more prize pool than winning one gains. With 4 players, 3 paid places worth 50, 30 and 20 and stacks of 4,000, 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000, the 3,000 stack has to win 59.7% of the time to call the 2,000 stack's all‑in, instead of 50% in chips. The 1,000 stack gains without playing.
Work out a bubble
The calculator opens on this example: 4 players, 3 paid places, the bubble. Change the stacks to see how the shares move.
Before and after the all‑in
Player 3 (2,000 chips) moves all‑in and player 2 (3,000) calls. Each player's share of the prize pool:
| Player | Before | If player 3 wins | If player 2 wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 (4,000) | 33.6% | 34.4% | 36.4% |
| Player 2 (3,000) | 29.5% | 15.6% | 38.9% |
| Player 3 (2,000) | 23.6% | 34.4% | out, 0% |
| Player 4 (1,000) | 13.3% | 15.6% | 24.7% |
Players 1 and 4, who are not in the hand, gain either way.
The win probability you need
| Player | In chips | On the bubble (ICM) |
|---|---|---|
| Player 2, who calls | 50% | 59.7% |
| Player 3, who moves all‑in and gets called | 50% | 68.5% |
Player 3 risks elimination one place from the money: they need even more than player 2, who keeps 1,000 chips if they lose.
Chip calls that become folds
For player 2, who has to win 59.7% of the time, blinds left aside:
| Player 2's hand | Player 3's hand | Player 2's equity | In chips | On the bubble |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A♠9♦ | K♥Q♥ | 54.3% | call | fold |
| J♠J♦ | A♥K♣ | 57.3% | call | fold |
| A♠K♦ | Q♥J♣ | 64.3% | call | call |
| T♠T♦ | 9♥8♥ | 81.1% | call | call |
For player 3, who has to win 68.5% of the time when called, even A♠K♦ against Q♥J♣ (64.3%) is no longer enough; A♠K♦ against A♥Q♣ (74%) is.
Keep going
- The calculation behind these numbers: ICM poker explained.
- The price of a call in a cash game: pot odds.
- The coinflips of an all‑in: pair vs overcards.
- When a hand is dominated: dominated hands.
- The value of a decision: expected value.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- After the money, the pay jumps: final table strategy.
- Why the same call changes price in a tournament: cash game vs tournament.
- The chip price of an all‑in, before ICM: calling all‑ins in tournaments.
- Chip-only ranges, without bubble or ICM: the push fold chart.
- When every seat pays the same: satellite poker strategy.
For a practice plan covering every stage of a tournament, see our MTT poker trainer.
To know where you stand, first count your stack size in big blinds.
Sources
- The prize pool shares are computed with the Malmuth-Harville model by the app's ICM module, and the equities by exact enumeration with its equity module, checked on October 11, 2026.