Poker Odds Chart: The Hold'em Probabilities Worth Knowing
A poker odds chart fits on one page: you are dealt a pocket pair 5.9% of the time, a pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time, two unpaired cards flop at least a pair with one of them 32.4% of the time, and a flush draw comes in 35% of the time from the flop to the river. Every value below is counted exactly, and each matchup links to its full breakdown.
Odds behind a preflop decision
You are on the button with A♠5♠ and everyone folds to you in a 6‑max game. What do you do?
See the answer
The odds that matter. A suited hand flops a flush only 0.84% of the time, but a flush draw 10.9% of the time, and an ace-high flush draw is the best one there is.
The decision. The expected answer is the small open to 2.2 big blinds: from the button, A5s is profitable enough to open, and its suit and its ace give it more ways to win after the flop than its rank suggests.
Starting hands
| Dealt | Probability | About |
|---|---|---|
| any pocket pair | 5.9% | 1 in 17 |
| a specific pair, such as A‑A | 0.45% | 1 in 221 |
| a suited hand | 23.5% | 1 in 4 |
| A‑K, suited or not | 1.2% | — |
What the flop brings
| You hold | The flop gives you | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| a pocket pair | a set or better | 11.8% |
| two unpaired cards | at least a pair with one of them | 32.4% |
| a suited hand | a flush | 0.84% |
| a suited hand | a flush draw | 10.9% |
Draws, by street
| Draw | Outs | Flop to river | Turn to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| flush draw | 9 | 35% | 19.6% |
| open-ended straight | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| gutshot | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
How to count them: poker outs; how to estimate them at the table: the rule of 2 and 4.
Classic matchups
| Matchup | Equity of the first hand | Full breakdown |
|---|---|---|
| 99 vs AK offsuit | 55.7% | pair vs overcards |
| AQ vs AK | 26% | dominated hands |
| flush draw vs top pair, flop | 36.6% | flush draw vs top pair |
| set vs nut flush draw, flop | 74% | set vs flush draw |
| combo draw vs top pair, flop | 68.9% | combo draw |
Keep going
- How often each five-card hand occurs: poker hand rankings.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- The strongest starting hand, before and after the flop: how to play pocket aces.
- A strong pair that faces many overcards: how to play pocket tens.
- What equity is, with exact classic matchups: poker equity.
- How much being suited really adds: suited vs offsuit.
All of these reference numbers fit on one page in our poker cheat sheet.
Sources
- Starting-hand and flop probabilities are counted over all 1,326 starting hands and 19,600 flops; matchups are computed by exact enumeration with the app's equity module, checked on October 10, 2026.
- Background: Wikipedia, "Poker probability" (read October 10, 2026).
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.