Flush Draw vs Top Pair: The Exact Equity of Each Draw
A flush draw vs top pair on the flop wins about 36.6% of the time with two cards to come, and 20.5% with one card left. Extra outs change everything: an overcard brings it to 45.7%, an open-ended straight draw makes it the favorite at 56.3%.
A flush draw facing a c‑bet
You defend the big blind with 9♣8♣. The flop comes K♥ 7♣ 2♣ and the button, who will often hold a king, bets 25% of the pot. Fold, call or raise?
See the answer
Your equity against top pair. Against K♠Q♦, 9♣8♣ wins 39.3% of the time from the flop to the river.
The price. A bet of 25% of the pot asks for 16.7% equity.
The decision. With more than twice the equity the price requires, calling is the expected answer, even against the top pairs that beat you now.
Against top pair: flop and turn
Board K♠ 8♥ 5♥, opponent K♣Q♦; the turn is the 2♣.
| Draw | Flop | Turn |
|---|---|---|
| J♥3♥, flush draw only | 36.6% | 20.5% |
| Q♥J♥, flush draw, cards below the king | 37.6% | 20.5% |
| A♥3♥, nut flush draw + overcard | 45.7% | 34.1% |
| K♥T♥, top pair + flush draw | 47.3% | 27.3% |
| 7♥6♥, flush + open-ended straight | 56.3% | 34.1% |
Against an overpair: aces
Same board, opponent A♠A♣.
| Draw | Flop |
|---|---|
| J♥3♥, flush draw only | 36.6% |
| A♥3♥, nut flush draw | 37.3% |
| K♥T♥, top pair + flush draw | 49.8% |
| 7♥6♥, flush + open-ended straight | 56.3% |
What the tables show
| Effect | Example | Equity |
|---|---|---|
| pairs and backdoors add little to the flush | J♥3♥ vs K♣Q♦ | 36.6% (flush alone: 36.4%) |
| one card left instead of two | J♥3♥ vs K♣Q♦ | 36.6% → 20.5% |
| a live overcard | A♥3♥ vs K♣Q♦ | 45.7% |
| the same overcard, dead | A♥3♥ vs A♠A♣ | 37.3% |
| a straight draw on top | 7♥6♥ vs K♣Q♦ | 56.3% |
| new outs on the turn (wheel, 15 outs) | A♥3♥ after the 2♣ | 34.1% |
Keep going
- Exact equities for any two hands: the best poker equity calculators 2026.
- Count the outs behind these numbers: poker outs.
- Estimate them at the table: the rule of 2 and 4.
- Compare with the price: pot odds.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- The coin flip in exact numbers: pair vs overcards.
- When the kicker decides: dominated hands.
- A set against the draws: set vs flush draw.
- The straight version: open-ended straight draw vs overpair.
- Flush and straight draw together: the combo draw.
- Why to bet bigger when draws are everywhere: c‑bet on wet boards.
- When the flop has three cards of one suit: the monotone flop.
- When two flop cards share a suit: the two-tone flop.
- Three king-high flops side by side: the king-high flop.
- How often a suited ace flops a flush draw: suited aces.
- The made hand's side: the protection bet.
- When the draw holds the ace: how to play the nut flush draw.
To go from one opposing hand to a whole range, see how to calculate equity vs range.
Sources
- Every equity is computed by exact enumeration of all remaining boards with the app's equity module, checked on October 10, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.