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King-High Flop: Why K‑7‑2 and K‑J‑T Play Nothing Alike

A king-high flop can be one of the safest boards for top pair or one of the most dangerous. On K♠ 7♦ 2♥, A♠K♦ keeps 92.2% to 93.7% against Q♦J♦, A♥Q♥, Q♠9♠ and 9♣8♣. On K♥ 7♣ 2♣, the two clubs give 9♣8♣ a flush draw and 39.3% against it. On K♥ J♥ T♣, A♥Q♥ and Q♠9♠ already have a straight, and top pair is left with 7.2% and 15.4%.

Nine-eight of clubs on K♥ 7♣ 2♣

In the big blind with 9♣8♣, you called a button open. The flop is K♥ 7♣ 2♣, you check and the button bets 25% of the pot. Fold, call or raise 4x?

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A 25% bet asks for 16.7% equity. 9♣8♣ has a 9-out flush draw:

Button's hand9♣8♣'s equity
6♦6♠, small pocket pair56.3%
Q♠J♠, two high cards55.6%
A♣Q♦, ace of clubs, no pair49.3%
A♠K♦, top pair39.3%
K♦Q♦, top pair39.3%
7♠7♦, set27.4%

Against every hand in this table, 9♣8♣ has more than the 16.7% the price asks for.

The same top pair on three king-high flops

Equity of A♠K♦ with the turn and river to come:

Opponent's handK♠ 7♦ 2♥K♥ 7♣ 2♣K♥ J♥ T♣
9♣8♣93.6%60.7%78.8%
Q♦J♦92.2%95.7%66.3%
A♥Q♥93.7%93.6%7.2%
Q♠9♠93.3%96.9%15.4%
7♠7♥1.6%1.6%85.4%

What each hand holds

Opponent's handK♠ 7♦ 2♥K♥ 7♣ 2♣K♥ J♥ T♣
9♣8♣nothing, 0 outsflush draw, 9 outsopen-ended straight draw, 8 outs
Q♦J♦nothing, 0 outsnothing, 0 outspair of jacks and open-ended straight draw, 8 outs
A♥Q♥nothingnothingstraight
Q♠9♠nothingnothingstraight
7♠7♥setsetunderpair

These outs count every card that completes the draw. Against A♠K♦ on K♥ J♥ T♣, fewer of them win: a queen gives 9♣8♣ a straight but A♠K♦ a higher one, and A♠K♦ holds one of the aces that would complete Q♦J♦'s straight.

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Frequently asked questions

Is top pair strong on a king-high flop?

On a dry one, very: A♠K♦ has 92.2% to 93.7% on K♠ 7♦ 2♥ against Q♦J♦, A♥Q♥, Q♠9♠ and 9♣8♣. On K♥ J♥ T♣ it falls to 7.2% against A♥Q♥, which already has a straight.

What changes when two of the flop cards share a suit?

Every hand with two cards of that suit gets 9 outs: 9♣8♣ has 6.4% against A♠K♦ on K♠ 7♦ 2♥ and 39.3% on K♥ 7♣ 2♣.

Why is K-J-T so different from K-7-2?

Its cards are close together: hands like A♥Q♥ and Q♠9♠ already have a straight, and hands like Q♦J♦ and 9♣8♣ have an open-ended straight draw.

How we made this page

The spots come from our library of 647 puzzles. Their expected answers follow rules we wrote and explain on each puzzle; they are not solver outputs. 29 figures on this page are recomputed from the cards by our automated tests. Written with the help of AI tools, then reviewed and checked by our team.

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