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Monotone Flop: How Three Cards of One Suit Change Every Hand

A monotone flop such as Q♥ 9♥ 3♥ changes every hand's value. A single card of the suit is a 9-out flush draw: top pair Q♠J♠ falls from 93.9% against 5♥4♠ on a rainbow Q‑9‑3 to 60.3% here, and to 2.8% against a made flush like 8♥7♥. The ace of the suit matters most: A♥K♣ has 50.6% against top pair on this flop, compared with 20.5% on the rainbow version.

Ace-king with the ace of hearts on Q♥ 9♥ 3♥

In the cutoff with A♥K♣, you opened to 2.5 big blinds and the big blind called. The flop is Q♥ 9♥ 3♥ and the big blind checks. Check back, bet 33%, bet 50% or overbet 120%?

See the answer

A♥K♣ has the nut flush draw, 9 outs. Its equity on this flop, next to the same hands on a rainbow Q♦ 9♣ 3♠:

Big blind's handQ♥ 9♥ 3♥Q♦ 9♣ 3♠
5♥4♠, one small heart82.6%74.0%
J♥T♣, one heart and an open-ended straight draw70.1%52.8%
Q♠J♠, top pair50.6%20.5%
K♦K♠, overpair46.7%14.3%
8♥7♥, made flush28.7%75.3%
9♠9♦, set28.3%1.6%

The ace of hearts keeps A♥K♣ in good shape against almost everything, and it removes the nut flush from the big blind's hand. A small bet keeps the pot under control against the made flushes that would raise.

Top pair on a monotone flop and on a rainbow one

Equity of Q♠J♠, which has no heart, with the turn and river to come:

Opponent's handQ♥ 9♥ 3♥Q♦ 9♣ 3♠
5♥4♠, one small heart60.3%93.9%
T♥8♣, one heart and a gutshot56.3%85.8%
A♣A♦, overpair22.9%25.9%
K♦K♠, overpair21.0%23.1%
8♥7♥, made flush2.8%94.3%

On the monotone flop, the one-heart hands in this table, far behind on a rainbow board, keep 39.7% or more against top pair, simply because they hold a heart.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a monotone flop?

A flop with three cards of the same suit, such as Q♥ 9♥ 3♥. Any hand with two cards of that suit already has a flush, and any hand with one has a flush draw.

How strong is top pair on a monotone flop?

Weaker than it looks: Q♠J♠ has 93.9% against 5♥4♠ on a rainbow Q-9-3, but only 60.3% on Q♥ 9♥ 3♥, because a single heart gives 9 outs. Against a made flush like 8♥7♥ it has 2.8%.

Why does the ace of the suit matter so much?

Without a second heart, it turns any hand into the nut flush draw: A♥K♣ has 50.6% against top pair Q♠J♠ on Q♥ 9♥ 3♥, compared with 20.5% on a rainbow board.

How we made this page

The spots come from our library of 647 puzzles. Their expected answers follow rules we wrote and explain on each puzzle; they are not solver outputs. 25 figures on this page are recomputed from the cards by our automated tests. Written with the help of AI tools, then reviewed and checked by our team.

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