Open-Ended Straight Draw vs Overpair: What the Draw Is Worth
An open-ended straight draw vs overpair is worth about a third on the flop: on 9♦ 8♣ 2♥, 7♠6♠ has 32.6% against queens and 34.2% against aces. After a blank turn it falls to 18.2%. Watch the outs the overpair holds: J‑T makes its straight with a seven or a queen, so against queens it keeps only 6 live outs and 26.7%.
A straight draw facing a big turn bet
On the button with J♠T♠, the flop Q♠ 9♦ 4♣ checked through and the turn is the 2♠. The big blind leads for 125% of the pot. Fold, call or raise?
See the answer
Your draw. You have 8 straight outs (a king or an eight) and 15 outs with the flush draw. Against an overpair of aces, that is 34.1% with one card to come (out of 44 unseen cards, with the aces known).
The decision. The expected answer is to call: the combined draw gives you equity close to the price of a 125% pot bet (a bit more than a third), and the hands you make can still win more on the river.
Straight draws against an overpair of queens
Board 9♦ 8♣ 2♥, opponent Q♣Q♦; the turn is the K♠.
| Draw | Live outs | Flop | Turn |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7♠6♠, open-ended (5 or T) | 8 | 32.6% | 18.2% |
| T♠7♠, open-ended (6 or J) | 8 | 33% | 18.2% |
| J♥T♥, open-ended (7 or Q) | 6 | 26.7% | 13.6% |
| T♣6♣, gutshot (7) | 4 | 22.3% | 9.1% |
Against aces instead
| Draw | Flop |
|---|---|
| 7♠6♠ vs Q♣Q♦ | 32.6% |
| 7♠6♠ vs A♣A♦ | 34.2% |
What the tables show
| Effect | Example | Equity |
|---|---|---|
| an open-ender is about a third | 7♠6♠ vs QQ | 32.6% |
| outs held by the overpair are dead | J♥T♥ vs QQ | 26.7%, 6 live outs |
| a gutshot is about a fifth | T♣6♣ vs QQ | 22.3% |
| one card left roughly halves it | 7♠6♠, flop then turn | 32.6% → 18.2% |
Keep going
- Count only the live outs: poker outs.
- Turn outs into a quick estimate: the rule of 2 and 4.
- The flush draw version: flush draw vs top pair.
- Compare with the price: pot odds.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- Flush and straight draw together: the combo draw.
- When the flop is low and connected: the low connected board.
- The overpair side of the story: how to play overpairs.
- Five cards in a row, and which straight wins: the straight in poker.
Sources
- Every equity is computed by exact enumeration of all remaining boards with the app's equity module, and outs are recounted from the cards, checked on October 10, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.