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Turn Strategy: One Card, and the Equities Flip

Turn strategy starts with one question: what does this card change? A single card can flip the equities. A set of sevens, 7♦7♣, has 74.9% against A♠3♠ on J♠ 8♠ 7♥; a 2♦ turn lifts it to 84.1%, a 2♠ turn that completes the flush drops it to 22.7%. Before betting again, look at what the card gives the hands that called the flop.

A♠K♦ on the turn on 8♣ 7♦ 6♠ 5♥

Heads-up, single-raised pot: in the big blind with A♠K♦, you made a small c‑bet on 8♣ 7♦ 6♠ and the small blind called. The 5♥ comes on the turn. Check, bet 25%, 60% or pot, into a 16bb pot?

See the answer

A♠K♦'s equity against hands that called the flop, before and after the 5♥ turn:

Small blind's handOn the flopOn the turnWhat the turn gives it
4♣3♣60.7%8%a straight
9♥8♥18.5%3.4%a straight
6♥5♦20.2%9.1%two pair
A♥8♦14.8%15.9%nothing new
J♥T♥62.9%72.7%nothing new

What each bet has to fold out if A♠K♦ were a pure bluff:

BetFolds needed
25% pot20%
60% pot37.5%
pot-sized50%

The 5♥ turn makes A♠K♦ drop against the hands that called with a draw or a small pair; it gains only about a point against A♥8♦ and improves against J♥T♥, which it was already beating. The expected answer is the check.

What the turn can change

TurnFor the drawsFor the made hand
Blankone card fewer to hitequity goes up
Card that completes a drawthe draw is madeequity drops

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Sources

Frequently asked questions

Why is the turn a decisive street?

Because one card can flip the equities: a set of sevens at 74.9% against a flush draw on the flop goes to 84.1% on a blank turn and to 22.7% if the flush comes.

What should you look at before betting again on the turn?

What the card gives the hands that called the flop: straights, flushes, two pair. If it completes them, your equity against them drops.

How many folds does a turn bluff need?

The same as on any street: 20% for a quarter pot, 37.5% for 60% pot, 50% for a pot-sized bet.

How we made this page

The spots come from our library of 647 puzzles. Their expected answers follow rules we wrote and explain on each puzzle; they are not solver outputs. 16 figures on this page are recomputed from the cards by our automated tests. Written with the help of AI tools, then reviewed and checked by our team.

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