Expected Value in Poker: How to Calculate the EV of a Decision
Expected value in poker (EV) is the average amount a decision wins or loses if you repeated it many times in the same spot. For a call: EV = equity × what you win − (1 − equity) × what you pay. Positive, the call makes money over time; negative, it loses money, whatever happens in this particular hand. EV is the measure of a decision; the result of one hand is not.
The EV of a river call
Heads-up on the button with A♠8♠, you bet the flop A♦ J♣ 6♥ and the turn 3♠. The river is the 9♦ and the big blind leads for 150% of the pot. Fold or call?
See the answer
The price. With 100 in the pot, the big blind bets 150: you call 150 to win 250, so you need 150 ÷ 400 = 37.5% equity to break even.
The EV depends on how often you win. If your top pair wins 45% of the time against this overbet, the call is worth 45% × 250 − 55% × 150 = +30 on average; at 30%, it is worth 75 − 105 = −30. The equities here are hypotheses: only the 37.5% threshold is a fact of the spot.
The decision. The expected answer is to call: an overbet this large is polarized between strong hands and bluffs, and top pair beats every bluff; as long as bluffs make up enough of that range, the call stays above the 37.5% line.
EV of the same call at different equities
| Your equity | EV of calling 150 to win 250 |
|---|---|
| 20% | −70 |
| 30% | −30 |
| 37.5% | 0 |
| 45% | +30 |
| 60% | +90 |
The break-even line is exactly the pot odds: below it, every call loses on average; above it, every call wins, and the further above, the more it is worth.
The EV of a bluff
A bluff wins the pot when your opponent folds and loses your bet when they call: EV = fold rate × pot − call rate × bet. A bet of 50 into 100 that works 40% of the time is worth 40% × 100 − 60% × 50 = +10, before counting what you win when called with outs. The fold rate where this EV turns positive is the threshold in how often a bluff must work. When your hand can improve later, add the implied odds to the calculation.
Decisions, not results
A +EV call that loses this hand was still the right call; a −EV call that wins was still a mistake. Over thousands of hands, results converge on EV, but over a few sessions the variance is large, which is why your bankroll has to absorb the swings. Judge your play by the EV of each decision, never by whether you won the pot.
Keep going
- River decisions to compute: what would you do.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- Betting a hand that is only slightly ahead: the thin value bet.
- When chips and money stop being the same: ICM poker.
- Chip EV against prize money on the bubble: bubble strategy.
- What a call is worth when pay jumps count: final table strategy.
- The part of EV that comes from the opponent folding: fold equity.
- When a good call still loses: poker tilt.
- The gap between the average and the results: poker variance.
- What equity is, with exact classic matchups: poker equity.
- When a strong hand loses to a stronger one without a mistake: cooler in poker.
Sources
- Expected value as a weighted average of outcomes: Wikipedia, "Expected value" (read October 10, 2026).
- The EV figures on this page are computed with the formula above from the stated equities; the answer to the spot is written by the app's author, not by a solver.