Poker Variance: What a Good Decision Can Lose
Poker variance is the gap between your results and what your decisions earn on average. A good decision regularly loses: before the flop, K♣K♦ wins 18.6% of all‑ins against A♠A♥. Over 10 AA vs KK all‑ins, AA loses at least one 87.2% of the time, and at least three 27.9% of the time. That is not a playing mistake: it is variance.
Check an equity yourself
Pick two hands and a board to see each one's share of wins:
AA vs KK, all‑in after all‑in
K♣K♦ wins 18.6% of all‑ins against A♠A♥ before the flop. The chance, for AA, of losing at least a given number of all‑ins:
| All‑ins played | AA loses at least | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | once | 64.2% |
| 10 | once | 87.2% |
| 10 | 3 times | 27.9% |
| 100 | 15 times | 85.2% |
| 100 | 25 times | 6.7% |
Over 5 all‑ins, losing at least once is more likely than not. Over 100, the share of losses narrows around the average, even though the swings in chips get bigger.
What variance does not tell you
A losing run does not prove a bad decision, and a winning run does not prove a good one. What gets judged is the decision at the moment it is made: its price and its equity.
Keep going
- Judging a decision by its average: expected value in poker.
- Keeping a cool head after losses: poker tilt.
- Planning for losing runs: poker bankroll management.
- How the price is computed: pot odds.
- When one hand dominates another: dominated hands.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- Judging the decision, not the result: how to review poker hands.
- Two formats, two ways to get paid: cash game vs tournament.
- When a strong hand loses to a stronger one without a mistake: cooler in poker.
Sources
- The equity is computed by exact enumeration with the app's equity module, and every probability with the binomial law from that equity, checked on October 11, 2026.