Probe Bet: Leading the Turn When the Raiser Checked the Flop
A probe bet is a bet by the out-of-position player on the turn, after the preflop raiser checked the flop back. By checking back, the raiser gives up the initiative: a raiser with a strong hand would often have bet the flop, so the check makes some of those hands less likely. The size of the probe sets the price for the caller, and the folds it needs when it is a bluff.
Facing a probe with J♠T♠
On the button with J♠T♠, you opened and the big blind called. The flop Q♠ 9♦ 4♣ checked through, the turn is the 2♠, and the big blind leads for 125% of the 8.5bb pot. Fold, call or jam?
See the answer
Calling needs 35.7% equity. J♠T♠ has a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw, 15 outs. Against hands that can probe, with the river to come:
| Big blind's hand | What it holds | J♠T♠'s equity |
|---|---|---|
| K♦Q♦ | top pair, king kicker | 31.8% |
| A♥Q♣ | top pair, ace kicker | 34.1% |
| 9♥9♣ | set of nines | 29.5% |
| 4♥2♥ | two pair | 31.8% |
| A♠5♠ | higher flush draw | 27.3% |
| 8♥7♥ | no pair, no draw | 95.5% |
Against value hands, J♠T♠ sits below the price; against a bluff, it is far ahead. The author's answer is the call: a hand with this much equity keeps going without putting the whole stack at risk on the turn.
What each probe size asks
| Probe size | Equity the caller needs | Folds a pure bluff needs |
|---|---|---|
| 33% of the pot | 19.9% | 24.8% |
| 50% of the pot | 25% | 33.3% |
| 75% of the pot | 30% | 42.9% |
| 125% of the pot | 35.7% | 55.6% |
Keep going
- The flop check that comes first: checking back the flop.
- Leading into the raiser on the same street: the donk bet.
- The raiser's own turn bet: the delayed c‑bet.
- The price of the call: pot odds.
- The draw of the spot: combo draw equity.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
Sources
- Every equity is computed by exact enumeration with the app's equity module, the out count with its outs module, and every price as bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) or bet ÷ (pot + bet), checked on October 11, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.