A♠Q♠ BTN vs BB, river on Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦, 65 bb
The spot
- You: BTN
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: A♠Q♠
- Board: Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦
- Effective stack: 65 bb
- Pot: 13 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
River (Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦). The hand is final — no draws. The A♦ river pairs hero's ace while the Q♣ already pairs the queen, so A♠Q♠ is top two pair, aces and queens — a clear value hand, not a medium bluff‑catcher. The BB's range is capped (Qx, missed clubs, busted straight draws), so there is plenty worse to charge. Checking this back surrenders a value bet; the correct line is a sizing-down value bet that the capped range's worse Qx and second pairs can call, so a pure check is a mistake.
Key idea
Against a capped range, top two pair on the river is a value bet, not a pot-control check.
Common mistake
Checking back strong made hands 'to avoid getting raised' when the opponent's range is capped and full of worse pairs that call.