Poker Bet Sizing: The Price Offered, the Folds Required
Poker bet sizing sets two prices at once: the equity the caller needs, and the share of folds a bluff needs. A two-thirds pot bet asks the caller for 28.6% equity, and a bluff of that size has to win 40% of the time. The bigger the bet, the higher both prices.
7♠7♣ on the river on K♠ 7♦ 2♣ 4♥ J♠
On the button with 7♠7♣, you made a small c‑bet the big blind called; the turn checked through. River J♠, the big blind checks, 28bb pot. Check, bet 55%, overbet 150% or all‑in?
See the answer
The set of sevens against big blind hands, on the river:
| Big blind's hand | What it holds | Result for 7♠7♣ |
|---|---|---|
| K♥Q♥ | top pair | wins |
| K♦J♦ | two pair | wins |
| A♥A♦ | pair of aces | wins |
| J♥T♥ | pair of jacks | wins |
| Q♠T♠ | nothing, king-high | wins |
| A♠5♠ | ace-high | wins |
| K♣K♦ | set of kings | loses |
| J♣J♦ | set of jacks | loses |
What each size asks of the caller, in this 28bb pot:
| Bet | Amount | Equity needed to call |
|---|---|---|
| 55% pot | 15.4bb | 26.2% |
| 150% pot | 42bb | 37.5% |
7♠7♣ beats every one of these hands except the two higher sets. The 55% bet asks top pair or two pair for a lower price than the overbet. The expected answer is the 55% bet.
The price of each size
| Bet | Equity needed to call | Folds needed for a pure bluff |
|---|---|---|
| 25% | 16.7% | 20% |
| 33% | 19.9% | 24.8% |
| 50% | 25% | 33.3% |
| two-thirds | 28.6% | 40% |
| 75% | 30% | 42.9% |
| 100% | 33.3% | 50% |
| 150% | 37.5% | 60% |
Keep going
- The price of a bluff, from the bettor's side: how often a bluff must work.
- The price of a call: pot odds.
- Bets bigger than the pot: overbet poker.
- Small value bets on the river: thin value bet on the river.
- How much of your range to defend: minimum defense frequency.
- One spot every day: the daily poker puzzle.
- Sizes against a calling station: micro stakes strategy.
Sources
- Every result is computed by exact enumeration with the app's equity module, and every price with its pot odds module, checked on October 11, 2026.
- The answer to the spot follows rules written by the app's author; it does not come from a solver.