A♠Q♠ BB vs SB, river on Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦, 75 bb
The spot
- You: BB
- Opponent: SB
- Your hand: A♠Q♠
- Board: Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦
- Effective stack: 75 bb
- Pot: 16 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Overbet 120% pot
Why
River (Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ | 2♠ | A♦). The A♦ pairs hero's ace and the Q♣ pairs hero's queen, so A♠Q♠ makes top two pair, aces and queens — no flush (only A♠Q♠ plus 2♠ = three spades). Versus the SB's capped range IP with the board final, top two pair is a clear value hand that beats every Ax, Qx, and worse two pair the capped range can hold, so the polar overbet maximizes value from those second-best made hands.
Key idea
When the river pairs your kicker into top two pair against a capped range, you hold a near-nut value hand that the capped range cannot beat with its bluff‑catchers — size up.
Common mistake
Checking back top two pair for pot control, missing a big value bet against a range full of one-pair bluff‑catchers.