K♣5♣ SB vs BTN, turn on Q♣ 8♦ 4♠ 2♠, 85 bb
The spot
- You: SB
- Opponent: BTN
- Your hand: K♣5♣
- Board: Q♣ 8♦ 4♠ 2♠
- Effective stack: 85 bb
- Pot: 19 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Overbet 120% pot
Why
Turn (Q‑8‑4‑2). SB vs BTN, hero is out of position and leads first into a capped BTN range. K‑5 of clubs is king-high with a backdoor club draw (Q-club on board plus hero's two clubs) and no made hand; the two board spades are not hero's. With the K high card blocking strong K-x and the texture favoring the OOP polarized range, an overbet leverages fold equity now and a club river later. As a turn semi-bluff with blockers and a backdoor, the overbet is defensible.
Key idea
A turn overbet bluff wants high-card blockers and a backdoor to fall back on; king-high with a backdoor club fits that profile.
Common mistake
Calling king-high a flush draw; the lone Q-club plus hero's two clubs is only a backdoor, not a live flush draw.