T♣8♣ CO vs BB, river on J♦ 8♠ 5♣ 9♠ 2♦, 90 bb
The spot
- You: CO
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: T♣8♣
- Board: J♦ 8♠ 5♣ 9♠ 2♦
- Effective stack: 90 bb
- Pot: 20.5 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
River, J‑8‑5‑9‑2 rainbow with no flush possible. Hero is in position as CO; the BB checked and is capped, having no slow-played monsters here. Hero holds T8 for second pair (a pair of eights) with a ten kicker, no straight and no flush. That is a real but thin made hand, so the small 40% bet merges value: it gets called by worse pairs and weak J-x giving up, while the size keeps better hands from raising.
Key idea
In position on a dry river, a thin made hand like second pair prefers a small merged bet over a check: you tax worse pairs that would never bet themselves.
Common mistake
Treating second pair as too weak and checking it back, missing thin value from the many worse pairs in a capped, give-up-heavy range.