Q♠J♠ BTN vs BB, river on Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦, 75 bb
The spot
- You: BTN
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: Q♠J♠
- Board: Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ 2♠ A♦
- Effective stack: 75 bb
- Pot: 16 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
River (Q♣ 9♦ 6♣ | 2♠ | A♦). The A on the river makes hero's pair of Queens (Q♣ on board, Q♠ in hand) only second pair with a Jack kicker. Against the capped BB this is a thin-value hand: it beats Q-x with a worse kicker, 9-x, sixes and the missed club/straight draws, but it is not strong enough to overbet. A small 40% bet merges value, getting called by those worse pairs and busted hands while keeping the pot controlled against the occasional Ace.
Key idea
When an overcard pairs the board on the river, a former top pair becomes a thin-value second pair: bet small to get called by worse, don't overbet.
Common mistake
Overbetting second pair as if the Ace did not arrive, getting called only by better and folding out the worse hands you wanted value from.