A♦5♦ BTN vs BB, river on K♠ T♥ 7♠ 6♣ 2♠, 80 bb
The spot
- You: BTN
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: A♦5♦
- Board: K♠ T♥ 7♠ 6♣ 2♠
- Effective stack: 80 bb
- Pot: 17.5 bb
Population tendencies shape exploit windows in this high-EV branch.
Choose the strongest exploit-aware baseline.
See the answer
Best play: Overbet 120% pot
Why
River (K♠ T♥ 7♠ | 6♣ | 2♠): checked to the BTN against a capped BB that holds busted draws, weak pairs and missed spades. Hero's A♦5♦ is final = pure ace-high, no pair, no straight, no flush — zero showdown value, it can only win by betting. The 120% overbet is the polar bluff side: against a capped range that cannot have the nut flush after checking, hero turns worthless air into max fold equity, repping the strong spade and K-x hands hero's IP range is allowed to have.
Key idea
Pure air with no showdown value is the ideal overbet bluff against a capped range that can never hold the nuts.
Common mistake
Checking ace-high back to 'take showdown' — it beats nothing in the BB's checked range, so giving up forfeits the only way the hand wins.