Q♠T♠ BB vs BTN, river on Q♣ T♣ 7♥ 2♦ 2♣, 95 bb

Best play: Bet 40% pot

Why

Final board Q♣ T♣ 7♥ 2♦ 2♣: three clubs are out and the deuce paired the board, so the strong end is the nut/second-nut club flushes plus full houses (QQ, TT, 77, 22), while one-pair hands sit below. Your Q♠T♠ makes two pair, queens and tens — but with no club and a paired board it loses to every flush and every full house, and only beats one-pair and bluffs. That makes it a medium value hand, not a polar overbet hand: an overbet 120% is called almost exclusively by the flushes and boats that crush you, so leading huge turns top-two into a bluff‑catcher. Out of position the disciplined line is a small thin-value lead (40%) that gets paid by worse Q-x/T-x, or a check to control the pot.

Key idea

On a three-flush paired board, top two pair is a medium hand — overbetting it isolates only flushes and boats; size small for thin value or check.

Common mistake

Overbetting top two pair on a flush-and-paired board, turning a value hand into a bluff‑catcher that only worse hands fold and only better hands call.