A♠Q♦ BB vs BTN, river on A♣ 8♦ 5♣ 5♥ 2♠, 95 bb
The spot
- You: BB
- Opponent: BTN
- Your hand: A♠Q♦
- Board: A♣ 8♦ 5♣ 5♥ 2♠
- Effective stack: 95 bb
- Pot: 14 bb
River checks to hero after two-street sequence.
Best river decision in baseline?
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
Final board A‑8‑5‑5‑2: the range holds A-x value and a mass of busted club and straight draws, with trip fives and full houses possible. Hero's A♠Q♦ makes aces-up (a pair of aces plus the board's pair of fives) with a strong queen kicker — a clear value hand that beats almost all of villain's A-x but loses to any 5-x (trip fives) and full houses. Hero is OUT OF POSITION here as the BB and must act first by leading; the question is sizing — a 120% polar overbet is reserved for near-nuts, and aces-up that loses to every trip five and boat is too vulnerable for that size, getting called mainly by hands that beat it while folding out the worse A-x and air. A medium value lead extracts from worse A-x and missed draws without bloating the pot against the hands that crush it.
Key idea
Reserve the polar overbet for near-nuts; a strong-but-vulnerable two pair leads for a medium value size, not 120%.
Common mistake
Overbetting aces-up that loses to every trip-five and full house, getting called only by better.