J♦J♣ CO vs BB, river on J♠ 7♣ 4♦ T♦ 3♠, 100 bb
The spot
- You: CO
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: J♦J♣
- Board: J♠ 7♣ 4♦ T♦ 3♠
- Effective stack: 100 bb
- Pot: 24.5 bb
River checks to hero after two-street sequence.
Best river decision in baseline?
See the answer
Best play: Overbet 120% pot
Why
Final board J♠7♣4♦T♦3♠ is dry and disconnected: no flush, and only QT or 98 make a straight, hands the BB rarely has after calling down passively, so the BB is capped on one-pair J-x, T-x and busted hands. Hero holds J♦J♣ for top set, three jacks, an enormous value hand that beats every J-x and two-pair combo villain can have. In position with the river checked to hero, checking back wastes the strongest hand in the range; this should bet, ideally large, to extract from J-x and T-x that will pay.
Key idea
Top set on a dry river is pure value in position; bet to get paid, never check it back.
Common mistake
Checking back a monster like top set out of misplaced pot control, surrendering value the capped BB would have paid.