J♦J♣ CO vs BB, river on A♣ 8♦ 5♣ 5♥ 2♠, 85 bb
The spot
- You: CO
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: J♦J♣
- Board: A♣ 8♦ 5♣ 5♥ 2♠
- Effective stack: 85 bb
- Pot: 20 bb
River checks to hero after two-street sequence.
Best river decision in baseline?
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
Final board A♣8♦5♥... A♣8♦5♣5♥2♠: the board pairs the five, so the deuce/club draws have bricked and villain's BB defend range is mostly Ax pairs of aces, weak 8x/5x and busted club/straight draws now air. Hero's J♦J♣ uses the board pair to make two pair, jacks and fives, which actually beats a single pair of aces and loses only to trip fives and AA. In position, that is a thin value hand: a small 40% bet gets called by the many Ax combos and some 8x that hero beats, while keeping the bet small enough that hero is not blown off by the rare trips/boats — overbetting would only fold those worse pairs out.
Key idea
When the board pairs and your pocket pair becomes two pair, size small for thin value so weaker one-pair hands can call.
Common mistake
Checking back jacks-up for fear of aces, missing thin value from the many one-pair-of-aces combos it beats.