J♦J♣ BTN vs BB, river on J♠ 7♣ 4♦ T♦ 3♠, 80 bb
The spot
- You: BTN
- Opponent: BB
- Your hand: J♦J♣
- Board: J♠ 7♣ 4♦ T♦ 3♠
- Effective stack: 80 bb
- Pot: 24.5 bb
River checks to hero after two-street sequence.
Best river decision in baseline?
See the answer
Best play: Bet 40% pot
Why
Final board J♠ 7♣ 4♦ T♦ 3♠: no flush completes (only two diamonds) and the only hand beating you is 98 for the straight, so you hold near-nuts top set of jacks. BB is capped — they checked the river with second pairs (Tx, 7x), worse Jx and busted draws and have almost no straights here. Bet 40% so the wide range of one-pair and missed-draw hands that fold to an overbet still call and pay off thin value.
Key idea
With near-nuts on a dry river, pick the size your opponent's capped range will actually call — thin value beats scaring everyone off.
Common mistake
Overbetting the top set so hard that every worse pair folds, collecting nothing instead of a stream of thin calls.